Asian Markets

A recent lunch on Park Avenue with Columbia Threadneedle’s CEO reminded me how differently East and West keep score. When U.S. tariffs rattled April’s markets, Beijing answered “shot-for-shot” and went back to work—embodying the proverb “It’s never too late for a gentleman to take revenge.” Asian policymakers can wait decades; Wall Street barely waits a quarter.

The Big Picture

Think of Asia in 2025 as a richly woven tapestry rather than a single bolt of cloth. China is stitching stimulus into a sluggish economy; India’s vibrant pattern is starting to look pricey; Taiwan’s semiconductor fabric gleams but can snag on geopolitics; and Southeast Asia offers lighter, more breathable diversification for the global portfolio.

China |Patience, Policy, and Property

Beijing’s ?1 trillion liquidity injection¹ triggered the strongest rally in a decade—then momentum faded as credit appetite stayed weak. Western investors, conditioned to quarterly scorecards, see inefficiency; Chinese planners see a multi-year industrial repositioning. Their state-owned giants will forgo profits today if it means market share, tech autonomy, or employment security tomorrow. View exposure here as a five-year strategic story, not a five-quarter trade.

India |Great Growth, Dear Price

GDP should clip along near 6 percent, yet the MSCI India Index is up only 5.7 percent year-to-date²while valuations hover near decade highs³. India remains a core growth engine, but disciplined position sizing—or simply waiting for a better entry—may prove wise.

Taiwan |AI’s Foundry, Geopolitics’ Fault Line

TSMC projects mid-20 percent revenue growth in 2025 and up to $42 billion incapax⁴ as AI accelerators rise from 15 percent of sales today toward 50 percent by 2029⁴ . Markets aren’t blind: the stock is flat this year, already pricing perfection while scanning every headline from the Taiwan Strait. Stellar fundamentals meet elevated uncertainty.

ASEAN |Quiet Over-Achievers

• Indonesia: looser fiscal and monetary policy keeps growth near 5 percent⁵.
• Vietnam: GDP expected around 6 percent6, boosted by strategic location and tech FDI.
• Thailand: tourism revival and infrastructure spend lift growth toward 3 percent⁵.

Lower correlation to U.S.–China tension makes these markets useful portfolio shock absorbers.

Opportunity Map

1. AI Hardware & Supply Chains – Taiwan, South Korea, and ASEAN electronics hubs.
2. Consumption Up-Grades – Expanding middle classes in India, Indonesia, Vietnam.
3. Near-Shoring Winners – Malaysia and Thailand capturing redirected capex.
4. Policy Tailwinds – Regional central banks stay biased to support growth.

Risk Dashboard

• Geopolitics: tariff volleys, Taiwan Strait flashpoints.
• China’s property drag: stimulus can’t erase oversupply overnight.
• Valuation air-pockets: India and Taiwan trade well above historical norms.
• Currency whiplash: a range-bound U.S. dollar frustrates EM carry trades.
• Trade-policy roulette: election-year rhetoric could redraw export maps.

Putting It Together

Asias till offers an unrivaled mix of scale, demographics, and innovation—but 2025is a stock-picker’s, sector-picker’s, and time-horizon picker’s market. Respecting each economy’s unique tempo—and recognizing the different clocks that guide policy, profits, and politics—provides much-needed perspective when headlines tempt short-term reactions.

References

1 China Briefing. (2025, February 19). "China's Economic Stimulus Package: What Investors Need to Know." China Briefing.

2 CNBC. (2025, July 3). "CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Peaked, paused, and poised? India's market reboot at half-time." CNBC Inside India.

3 Cambridge Associates. (2024, December 5). "2025 Outlook: Public Equities." Cambridge Associates.

4 The Motley Fool. (2025, January 19)."Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Shares Jump on Positive AI Outlook. IsIt Time to Buy the Stock?" The Motley Fool.

5 Asian Development Bank. (2025, April). "Economic Forecasts: Asian Development Outlook April 2025." Asian Development Bank.

6 Source of Asia. (2025, June 10). "Vietnam Economic Outlook2024-2025." Source of Asia.