2020 U.S. election impacts


A large American flag waves in the wind

On a historical basis, presidential election cycles can influence stock prices over the near-term. This fall, COVID-19 trends and distinct policy proposals from President Trump and Former Vice President Biden could have implications for the economy, taxation and stock market longer-term. The Ameriprise Investment Research Group provides balanced, strategic insights that can help you put current conditions into perspective within a long-term investment portfolio.

 

Videocast: Sustain financial goals amid the stock market election cycle

Put stock market conditions into perspective within a portfolio. Watch experts share insights on drivers of the economy and capital markets, including COVID-19 developments, corporate profit trends, monetary policy actions and federal policy proposals.

 

 

Election implications for the economy, taxes and stocks

The presidential candidates have outlined distinct policy proposals. This could have meaningful implications for investors. Learn more about the high-level themes leading up to the election:

  • Corporate and individual taxes
  • Priorities for revenue
  • Federal deficit
  • Stock market volatility
 

 

Evaluating Biden's plan for America

Former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign team released several tax and spending proposals. Together, they supply a detailed picture of the policy direction he would take. This report from the Ameriprise Investment Research Group provides a summary of Biden’s proposals and outlines several potential investment implications.

Election Insight: Evaluating Biden's plan for America

 

Trump administration priorities for a second term

President Trump renewed the Republican policy platform from 2016, continuing work that has implications for the U.S. economy and markets. He also issued 50 core priorities for a second term. This report from the Ameriprise Investment Research Group summarizes implications for the economy, taxation and capital markets.

Election Insight: Trump second term agenda

 

Strategic investor insights for presidential election cycles

In an effort to identify discernable market patterns, much attention has been paid over the years to the so-called presidential cycle of average annual stock market returns. Read our summary of historical election-cycle market performance and stock-price volatility. We also highlight trends for the U.S. economy, deficit spending and market performance during various political cycles.

Committee Perspectives: U.S. election guide

 

Election year market volatility

Market volatility tends to rise in the fall during both election years and non-election years. However, election years tend to have higher volatility in the spring as voters participate in primaries, and there are often a number of candidates running for office. Interestingly volatility in election years tends to be lower in the summer, as the presidential field typically narrows.

S&P 500 Median 30 Day Volatility (in percent)

Historical election volatility graph

Sources: Bloomberg, Standard and Poor’s. S&P 30 day volatility during election years based on calendar month. Data as of 03/31/2020, beginning in 1946. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

  

Fourth quarter outlook for capital markets

You can view expert insights on the trends driving the U.S. economy as well as stock, fixed income and alternative investments. The Quarterly Capital Market Monitor summarizes the big picture items influencing your investments. It also offers perspectives to help you stick with the well-diversified investment portfolio that you and your Ameriprise advisor implemented together.

Quarterly Capital Market Monitor

 

Ways to position your portfolio in Q4 amid the election  

Investors should anticipate periods of market volatility leading up to and after the U.S. presidential election. Our roadmap from the Ameriprise Investment Research Group provides insights on key election points, longer-term investment themes and portfolio implications to consider based on election results.    

Investor’s Roadmap to the 2020 Election

 

5 near-term drivers for stocks

Markets enter the final quarter of the year with seasonal tailwinds, an improving economic backdrop and growing optimism toward a coronavirus vaccine. Learn more about five themes to keep in mind as you talk with your Ameriprise advisor.

  • Market volatility
  • Sidelined cash
  • Corporate profit trends
  • Monetary policy support
  • Diversified portfolios