Market Minute: Welcome Summer!

The unofficial start to summer arrived with a bang, as equity markets lit up like an early Fourth of July sky, reaching fresh all-time highs. But easy on the hot dogs and apple pie because investors may be facing increased macroeconomic headwinds. Persistent inflation, renewed discussion of potential rate hikes instead of cuts, and the ongoing geopolitical conflict in Iran continue to rain on the parade.

These factors have taken a toll on bonds, driving prices down and yields up, resulting in bond index averages that are flat to negative for the year, and this is making investors nervous. Nervous investors create increased volatility. So, strap in - the summer may have more booms than we expected.

Still, not all the news is cautionary. The AI-driven investment story continues to provide a powerful tailwind, acting like the grand finale that keeps lifting markets higher. What’s more, that momentum is broadening beyond technology, igniting opportunities across sectors like infrastructure, and energy.

Despite lackluster consumer sentiment readings, the U.S. consumer remains surprisingly resilient. Retail sales suggest spending is holding up well — even after accounting for higher energy prices. The labor market continues to shine, with steady job creation and unemployment claims hovering near historic lows.

As always, the biggest driver of markets is earnings—and this season’s results have been nothing short of explosive. First-quarter corporate earnings are wrapping up with growth exceeding 28%, while revenues have risen more than 11% year-over-year. While Nvidia may be the headline-grabbing rocket behind much of that surge, the broader story remains bright. Even excluding NVDA, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, META, and MU, earnings growth still clocks in around 13% — marking another quarter of solid double-digit expansion.1

With markets at record highs and bond yields flashing caution like distant thunder, it’s wise to stay disciplined. But with fundamentals still strong, the outlook remains constructive. So while there may be some unexpected pops and volatility along the way, the underlying trend continues to shine bright.

In short: expect a few fireworks this summer — but we’re still red, white, and bullish.

Sources:

1. Before the Bell, An Ameriprise Investment Research Group Publication, May 26, 2026.